A GIS–EPANET Decision-Support Framework for Urban Water Distribution Management under Water Scarcity Conditions in Moroccan Cities

Morocco is experiencing an unprecedented water crisis: the 2019–2024 period represents the longest consecutive drought sequence on record, with 2023 recording the lowest annual rainfall in eight decades and a pluviometric deficit of nearly 48%. Per capita water availability has dropped from approximately 2,500 m³/year in the 1960s to less than 600 m³ in 2023, well below the international scarcity threshold of 1,000 m³/capita/year. Urban water demand is projected to increase by 60 to 100% in major Moroccan cities by 2050, further straining aging distribution networks that already suffer from significant hydraulic losses and pressure deficits. Despite the critical urgency of this context, integrated spatial and hydraulic decision-support frameworks remain largely absent from the literature on Moroccan urban water systems. Existing studies address either GIS-based spatial analysis or hydraulic network modeling in isolation, without producing operationally actionable, policy-oriented outputs. This paper proposes an integrated GIS–EPANET decision-support framework for urban water distribution management under scarcity conditions, applied to the case of Meknès, an intermediate-sized Moroccan city. The methodology combines three complementary layers: (i) spatial vulnerability mapping using QGIS and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based multi-criteria analysis, incorporating demographic, topographic, and infrastructural data; (ii) hydraulic performance simulation of distribution networks using EPANET, calibrated against field pressure and flow measurements; and (iii) scenario-based analysis simulating stress conditions such as peak demand, drought-induced supply reduction, and network failure. The framework enables the production of spatially explicit vulnerability maps, optimized network reconfiguration scenarios, and a replicable decision-support tool to support water utility managers and national planning authorities. This work contributes a novel, transferable framework that bridges the gap between engineering-level hydraulic modeling and water governance decision-making, in direct alignment with Morocco's National Water Plan (2020–2027) and SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation). The proposed approach is designed to be scalable across cities of similar socio-hydrological profiles in the MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa regions.