Asymmetric economic impacts of drought and flood shocks: Evidence from coffee farming households in Vietnam’s Central Highlands

Climate change and natural disasters are increasingly affecting agricultural systems; however, limited attention has been paid to how different types of shocks generate distinct economic impacts across supply chains. This study examines the asymmetric impacts of drought and flood shocks on coffee-farming households in Vietnam’s Central Highlands. The analysis is based on a household survey conducted in four communes across four provinces during the period 2021–2025. The findings indicate that drought and flood are the two dominant hazards, but they affect households through different transmission channels. Drought, as a slow-onset shock, primarily reduces production capacity by lowering yields and increasing input costs. In contrast, flood, as a rapid-onset shock, disrupts post-harvest and market activities, leading to product losses, quality deterioration, and lower selling prices. The study tests whether these shocks generate asymmetric impacts across the production, post-harvest, and market stages. The results suggest that climate shocks not only affect farming households but also create distinct disruption pathways in the upstream segment of the coffee supply chain, resulting in uneven economic impacts across different actors and stages. These findings provide empirical evidence to support the design of shock-specific adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing the resilience of coffee production systems in Vietnam under climate change conditions.