Integrated volcanic risk assessment using the ADVISE model in the Galápagos Archipelago (Ecuador)

Volcanic island systems are best understood as spatially coupled socio-ecological systems in which hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are not necessarily co-located. In the Galápagos Archipelago (Ecuador), active volcanic processes coexist with inhabited islands that concentrate population, infrastructure, and economic activities, highlighting the need for integrated approaches to volcanic risk assessment. This study applies the ADVISE framework (Analysis of hazards, Disaster exposure, Vulnerability assessment, Impact estimation, System resilience, and Emergency capacity) to develop a conceptual model of volcanic risk in a spatially distributed inter-island system. Volcanic hazard is associated with active systems in Isabela Island, while exposure and vulnerability are evaluated in Santa Cruz Island based on population distribution and critical infrastructure. These components are integrated with system resilience to represent risk as an emergent property of regional interactions rather than a localized phenomenon. The results show a clear spatial decoupling between hazard sources and areas of highest exposure, where Santa Cruz concentrates most assets and therefore exhibits higher systemic vulnerability despite its distance from active volcanic centers. Potential indirect volcanic impacts are also recognized, including tephra (ash) dispersion and disruptions to critical infrastructure and inter-island connectivity. The findings indicate that volcanic risk in the archipelago is primarily driven by exposure concentration and limited resilience capacity rather than direct spatial proximity to hazard sources. This study demonstrates the applicability of the ADVISE framework for volcanic risk analysis in insular environments and supports its use for understanding risk as a systemic and spatially distributed process.