Assessing the Impact of Urban Growth on Potential Agricultural Land in Muyumbu Sector, Rwanda

Rapid urbanisation in developing countries like Rwanda has led to the expansion of cities to peri-urban areas, often encroaching on valuable agricultural land. This threatens sustainable development, including food security. In Rwanda, the master plan of Kigali City has accelerated this process, pushing many residents to migrate to peri-urban areas such as Nyarukombe cell in the Rwamagana district. Understanding the factors driving this migration and its impacts is crucial for preserving agricultural land. This study aimed to assess the impacts of urban growth on potential agricultural land in Nyarukombe cell, to identify factors driving urban–rural migration, and to propose strategies for preserving agricultural land. Mixed-methods analysis, including interviews with 180 households and government officials, field observations and Geographical Information Systems (GIS), was performed to analyze the land-use patterns from 2012 to 2024. Secondary data, such as demography, soil types, the Rwamagana district land use, land prices, and administrative boundaries were collected. Through study findings, 62% of respondents pointed out that their migration from Kigali city was driven by factors such as the implementation of the Kigali master plan, the need for sufficient and affordable land to for housing development, and job opportunities. This has led to the conversion of 34.8% of potential agricultural land in Nyarukombe cell to residential use. Approximatively 98% of fertile soil in the study area is zoned for housing, threatening food production. To mitigate this problem for sustainable land use in future, this study suggests some strategies, such as strengthening peri-urban agriculture, preserving high-value natural areas, and developing comprehensive master plans that balance housing needs with the preservation of agricultural land. Urgent action is needed to control urban–rural migration and preserve agricultural land in peri-urban areas. This requires collaboration among government ministries, local authorities, and communities to develop and implement sustainable land-use plans and policies. Additionally, empowering local stakeholders and promoting sustainable agricultural practices are also key to ensuring food security and sustainable development in the face of rapid urbanisation.