Toward a Circular-Economy Roadmap for Construction and Demolition Waste in Zambia: A Material Flow Analysis and Policy Gap Assessment under the SWRMA 2018

Introduction. Zambia lacks any national material flow analysis (MFA) for CDW, leaving policy without a quantitative evidence base. Existing studies are questionnaire-based and sub-national, while circular-economy scholarship treats CDW recovery as an under-developed value-creation opportunity. This study addresses both the quantitative and the regulatory dimensions of that gap.

Methods. A first-pass national MFA is constructed using the per-capita multiplier and lifetime material-balance approaches, parameterised with Zambia Statistics Agency construction-sector and demographic data and cross-checked against project-level generation rates from prior Zambian studies. In parallel, a policy gap assessment applies structured documentary analysis to the SWRMA 2018, the Environmental Management Act, and ZEMA implementing instruments, scored against an international comparator matrix (EU Waste Framework Directive; EU pre-demolition audit guidelines; South African and Rwandan frameworks).

Results. Anticipated outcomes (analysis pending) include national CDW tonnage estimates disaggregated by composition class, identification of provincial generation concentrations, and a scored regulatory gap profile isolating where Zambian instruments diverge from best practice. The MFA and policy strands are expected to converge on a small set of high-leverage intervention points.

Conclusions. The study provides the quantitative backbone hitherto missing from Zambian CDW governance, pairing material-flow estimates with actionable regulatory recommendations toward a national circular-economy roadmap. Estimates are bounded by the quality of secondary construction-sector data and benefit from calibration against primary site audits; the policy assessment is necessarily interpretive. The contribution is a foundational, replicable framework rather than a definitive inventory.