Scenario-based sustainability assessment of advanced plastic waste recycling systems in Italy

Introduction
Recycling and waste sorting are essential processes for achieving circular economy targets. This study evaluates the potential environmental benefits that could be achieved through the successful implementation of advanced sorting technologies and innovative recycling pathways in Italy’s plastic waste management system.
Methodology
A scenario-based analysis was conducted for plastic waste management in Italy. The developed scenarios represent prospective and optimized configurations assuming the successful implementation of advanced technologies, rather than currently operational systems. Scenario 1 represents the 2024 baseline based on the current Italian COREPLA (National Consortium for Plastic Packaging Waste management) configuration, assessing recycled material output and energy recovery from PLASMIX streams. Scenario 2 introduces robotic sorting technologies to evaluate potential improvements in separation efficiency and material recovery. Scenario 3 combines AI-driven robotic sorting with chemical recycling processes. Environmental impacts for all scenarios were quantified using the USEPA WARM model and expressed as tCO₂-eq.
Results
The results show substantial improvements in environmental performance across the analyzed scenarios. The baseline scenario achieved a net benefit of −21,624.77 tCO₂-eq, while Scenario 2 increased net avoided emissions to −244,189.97 tCO₂-eq through enhanced robotic sorting efficiency. The highest environmental benefit was obtained in Scenario 3, with net avoided emissions reaching −634,985.67 tCO₂-eq due to the combined implementation of automated sorting and chemical recycling technologies.
Conclusions
The study demonstrates the significant potential of prospective advanced recycling configurations to improve the environmental sustainability of plastic waste management in Italy. The findings suggest that the successful integration of intelligent sorting systems and chemical recycling technologies could support future circular economy strategies and contribute to greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.