Mapping the Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Oil Palm in Roraima, Brazil

Oil palm expansion in Southeast Asia and other tropical regions is associated with severe environmental degradation, social conflict, and illegal activity, including biodiversity loss, high CO₂ emissions, ecosystem collapse, Indigenous conflicts, and illicit forest fires. As Indonesia and Malaysia — the world’s leading oil palm producers — approach production limits, other tropical regions are emerging as potential sites for future expansion. Brazil has been identified as a key country for large-scale, sustainable oil palm expansion, primarily due to its extensive areas of abandoned pasture designated as ‘available’ for development. Since the introduction of the Sustainable Palm Oil Production Program (SPOPP), production in Brazil has accelerated, raising debate over whether national sustainability policies are effectively steering expansion away from primary forests and toward degraded lands, particularly beyond the main oil palm-producing hub of Pará. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of oil palm expansion in the Brazilian state of Roraima, focusing on the municipalities of Rorainópolis, São Luiz, São João da Baliza, and Caroebe. Remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) were used to assess the extent of oil palm plantations, the timeframe of associated deforestation, and land use/land cover (LULC) prior to oil palm establishment. A clear preference for primary forest conversion was found in all municipalities except Rorainópolis, despite widespread availability of policy-designated pastureland. Caroebe had the highest rate of primary forest conversion, with São João da Baliza also showing significant deforestation linked to oil palm expansion. Over 98% of mapped plantations were located within the Global Forest Watch Emerging Hotspots dataset. Most mapped forest loss associated with current oil palm plantations occurred after the introduction of SPOPP in 2010, peaking between 2012 and 2016. The findings suggest that the current policy framework has not consistently prevented primary forest conversion associated with oil palm expansion in Roraima.