Monitoring and Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in the Sahyadri Tiger Reserve, Maharashtra, India, Using a Hybrid CA–Markov Model

Spatiotemporal analysis of land use/land cover (LULC) helps quantify human interference and assess habitat vulnerability. This study focuses on the Sahyadri Tiger Reserve (STR), the first designated tiger reserve in western Maharashtra, India. A 2014 field study by the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) reported only 5–7 tigers in the reserve, while recent monitoring indicates an increase to approximately 10 individuals following ongoing tiger rehabilitation and habitat restoration efforts. Considering this, understanding long-term LULC dynamics and future landscape changes is crucial for evaluating habitat recovery and informing conservation planning. We employed supervised classification of Landsat imagery from 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023 to assess historical LULC changes and used a hybrid Cellular Automata–Markov Chain (CA–Markov) model to project future landscape dynamics for 2053. Result indicates between 1993 and 2023, dense and moderately dense forests increased by 75.9 km² (6.5%) and 50.1 km² (4.3%), respectively, while degraded forest, open forest, and cropland declined by 139.8 km² (12.0%), 14.3 km² (1.2%), and 18.9 km² (1.6%), respectively. Water bodies increased by 19.5 km² (1.7%), whereas built-up areas and open land expanded by 0.2 km² (0.02%) and 27.3 km² (2.0%), respectively. Projections for 2053 suggest continued improvement in forest conditions, with dense and moderately dense forests expected to increase by 60.5 km² (5.2%) and 20.8 km² (1.8%), respectively. In contrast, degraded and open forests are projected to decline by 67.5 km² (5.8%) and 47.5 km² (4.1%), respectively. Built-up areas and open land are expected to expand moderately, while cropland is projected to decrease slightly and water bodies to increase marginally. Overall, the STR landscape appears relatively resilient to human pressures. The increase in forest cover, reduction in degraded habitats, and expansion of water resources indicate improving habitat conditions that may support ongoing tiger relocation initiatives.