Energy, Economic, and Environmental Forecasting for Sustainable Rail Transport: Green Hydrogen Deployment on the Silk Road Corridor

The transition toward low-carbon rail systems is essential for reducing emissions along major transportation corridors, particularly in regions where diesel traction remains prevalent. This study examines the potential deployment of green hydrogen fuel cell trains (H₂-FCTs) as an alternative to diesel operation and full electrification along the Tashkent–Samarkand–Bukhara railway, a historically significant corridor within the Silk Road network.

To support decision-making, a forecasting-oriented framework is developed to assess future energy demand, operational performance, and emissions under different decarbonization pathways. The analysis combines techno-economic evaluation with life cycle assessment (LCA), taking into account hydrogen production routes, refueling infrastructure, service frequency, and expected passenger demand along the corridor.

The results indicate that hydrogen-powered trains can provide a cost-effective solution, with annual operating costs estimated at approximately 1.6 M$ (0.18 €/passenger-km), compared to about 5.5 M$ (0.64 €/passenger-km) for full electrification. From an environmental perspective, both alternatives offer substantial improvements over diesel-based systems. The hydrogen scenario is associated with an annual reduction of nearly 1,900 tonnes of CO₂ (0.22 kg CO₂ per passenger-km), while electrification achieves a slightly higher reduction of around 2,200 tonnes per year.

Although electrification remains an effective approach for rail decarbonization, hydrogen fuel cell systems offer greater flexibility, particularly for long-distance corridors with variable demand and limited infrastructure. Overall, the forecasting findings highlight the potential of green hydrogen as a practical, scalable solution to advance sustainable rail transport and support future infrastructure planning across emerging Silk Road corridors.