Annual PM2.5 Concentration Forecasts for the Silesian Voivodeship under the Recast CAFE Directive

Silesian Voivodeship is one of Poland’s most urbanized and industrialized regions, and has historically recorded elevated concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). National air-quality assessments before 2020 relied on annual mean PM_2.5 concentrations of 25 µg/m³ and 20 µg/m³ thereafter. Epidemiological evidence indicates that short-term increases in PM_2.5 concentrations above 10 µg/m³ are associated with a higher number of hospital admissions and emergency department visits for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. Long-term exposure is associated with premature mortality, cardiovascular and ischemic heart disease, chronic respiratory impairment, lung cancer, kidney disease, and potential adverse effects on neurological development and cognitive function. In response to these health concerns, the recast CAFE Directive, adopted in December 2024, introduced stricter PM_2.5 requirements that will apply from 1 January 2030.

This study examines changes in PM_2.5 concentrations in the Silesian Voivodeship between 2011 and 2025 and evaluates the likelihood of reaching the 2030 annual target concentration of 10 µg/m³. Separate time-series forecasts were developed for annual mean concentrations, heating and non-heating seasons. The three forecasts were estimated independently and should therefore be interpreted as complementary analytical perspectives rather than as mathematically aggregated components of one common model.

The historical analysis indicates a substantial reduction in annual PM_2.5 concentrations, from 33.1 µg/m³ in 2011 to 18.6 µg/m³ in 2025. Concentrations declined from 47.5 to 24.9 µg/m³ during the heating season and from 18.6 to 12.3 µg/m³ outside that period. Central forecasts for 2030 suggest values of 9.8 µg/m³ annually, measuring 9.2 and 9.8 µg/m³ during the heating and non-heating seasons, respectively. Nevertheless, uncertainty intervals include values above the 10 µg/m³ threshold, particularly in the heating period. The results indicate that attainment of the 2030 target is possible but remains uncertain, and will depend primarily on further reductions in wintertime emissions and the occurrence of favorable meteorological conditions.