Evaluating Key Meteorological Parameters Associated with Lightning Activity over Madhya Pradesh, India

Lightning is one of the deadliest natural hazards in India, with Madhya Pradesh among the most lightning-prone states. Its unique climatic and physiographic conditions provide a favourable environment for the development of deep convection and frequent lightning activity. Despite its high vulnerability, the complex interplay of meteorological factors governing the spatiotemporal variability of lightning over the region remains poorly understood. This study investigates the physical drivers of lightning activity across Madhya Pradesh during 2019–2023 using multisource satellite observations, ERA5 reanalysis, aerosol products, and observed lightning datasets. The analysis examines the influence of key meteorological parameters, including Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), vertical velocity, moisture availability, temperature, relative humidity, and aerosol optical depth (AOD), on lightning occurrence across different seasons. The results reveal a pronounced east-to-west gradient in lightning activity, primarily controlled by regional variations in convective instability, moisture availability, and aerosol loading. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and mid-tropospheric vertical velocity emerge as the dominant meteorological drivers of lightning occurrence. In contrast, aerosol–lightning interactions exhibit pronounced seasonal variability, suggesting that aerosols modulate convective electrification under favourable thermodynamic conditions. These findings improve the understanding of lightning-generating environments over central India and provide valuable insights for enhancing lightning forecasting, early warning systems, and disaster risk reduction strategies in one of India's most vulnerable regions.