Influence of Extreme Heat Events on the Daily Behavior of Electricity Demand in Cuba. A Case Study

As a consequence of electricity supply restrictions, in recent years, the weakness of the Cuban electrical system has become a subject of discussion. This situation occurs during certain times of the year when electricity consumption increases considerably, with the risk of continuing to suffer its consequences persisting. The change in the frequency and severity of extreme events such as heat waves are currently the most worrying effects of climate change. Therefore, the main objective is the analysis of bioclimatic extreme events with characteristics similar to heat waves potentially capable of producing negative effects on the country's energy demand. The study area was the Island of Cuba, and 67 meteorological stations belonging to the network of stations of the Institute of Meteorology were used. General energy demand data for the entire country and three-hourly values of temperature, humidity and wind were used during the months of the rainy period of the year 2024. The evaluation of bioclimatic extremes associated with heat was carried out through the Intense Heat Condition indicator. Extreme heat events occurred in all months of the rainy period, except October and August, which aligns with the observed trend of increase in these events in the country, especially in the last decade. During extreme heat events, energy demand shows greater sensitivity to climatic variables. In contrast, on days without extreme events, these relationships are weaker and more stable, with a less pronounced influence of meteorological factors. Extreme events amplify the impact of climate on electricity demand, making variables such as temperature, humidity and bioclimatic indices useful for predicting and managing consumption peaks.