Assessing the Role of the Asian Monsoon in Modulating Arctic Sea Ice Variability

The Arctic region is warming faster than the global average, leading to a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice, specifically during September. Despite uncertainty about the exact cause of such a drastic decline in Sea Ice, recent studies link it to anthropogenic forcing, natural climate variability within the climate system, or both. Several studies have examined the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation on Arctic sea ice, whereas the impact of the monsoon has received comparatively less attention in this context. Through this study, we investigate how the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) influences Arctic sea ice variability in September. An analysis of fifty years (1951-2000) of multiple datasets - National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, APHRODITE precipitation, Gridded Monthly Sea Ice Extent and Concentration, 1850 Onward, V2, and HadISST sea-ice concentration was carried out in this study. The main finding of this research is that many Strong (weak) ISM years are associated with a significant increase (decrease) in Arctic sea ice over the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. A physical mechanism is proposed in this study, showing how the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with ISM impacts the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during strong (weak) monsoon years via the monsoon–desert mechanism driven by monsoonal heating, and thereby influencing the Arctic sea ice. The study must be extended beyond 2000 to the present to gain a deeper understanding of what led to the record-breaking Arctic sea ice declines since 2000?