Future changes in dry and wet sequences over West Africa under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

West Africa is heavily dependent on agriculture and faces challenges related to food insecurity. Across the country, the lack of high-quality healthcare facilities reinforces concerns about the potentially increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change, which can significantly impact agricultural production. This study analyzes projected changes in short/long and dry/wet sequences in West Africa during the core of the rainy season (June–July–August–September, henceforth JJAS). For this purpose, we used the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset and the CHIRPS data. Regarding the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), the most pessimistic radiative forcing scenario (SSP5-8.5) was used. The changes in dry and wet sequences were evaluated based on six precipitation indices for the near future (2031-2060) and the far future (2071-2100) relative to the historical period (1981-2010). The results project an increase in the dry sequences across most of West Africa in both the near and far future. A decrease in the wet sequences was projected over the southern Sahel and in most parts of the Guinea zone under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Moreover, this decrease will be greater in the eastern part of the Guinea region and the southern Sahel in the far future. These changes in dry and wet sequences will pose a critical threat to the agricultural sector, potentially disrupting crop cycles and exacerbating food insecurity. An understanding of these projected changes is crucial for policymakers and local populations, enabling the development of adaptive strategies to enhance the resilience of agricultural activities in West Africa throughout the 21^st century.