Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (1985–2023): Climatic and Anthropogenic Pressures, Water Impacts, and Implications for Conservation

Introduction: This research analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover and land use in the state of Goiás, Brazil, between 1985 and 2023, investigating the correlations between anthropogenic pressures, climatic variations, and the impacts on water resources and the conservation of the Cerrado biome. The historical analysis reveals that technological modernization reconfigured the territory of Goiás, transforming subsistence agriculture into a high-intensity model geared toward the global commodities market. Methods: Remote sensing datasets and images from the Landsat satellite series (NASA/USGS) were used, processed digitally in the Google Earth Engine cloud. The pixel-by-pixel data, showing the loss and gain of coverage classes, were validated using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope trend tests, at a 99% confidence level. Results: Land cover results demonstrate a continuous expansion of the agricultural and livestock class over time, reaching 21.3 million hectares in 2023, with soybeans and sugarcane showing trends of maximum statistical intensity gain (Tau = 1.00; p-value = 0.01). Conversely, a sharp trend of loss of native vegetation cover was detected, with a loss of 31.55% of the original forest area (Tau = −1.00; p-value = 0.01). The savanna formation proved to be the most vulnerable, exhibiting a clearing rate 7.3 times higher than that of the forest formation. In the water context, although the surface area of water bodies has grown by 58.88% (Tau = 0.62; p-value = 0.01), this increase is attributed to the construction of large reservoirs in Goiás, which masks processes of habitat degradation and fragmentation. Conclusion: The analysis concludes that the exhaustive exploitation of natural resources and the simplification of the landscape compromise ecosystem services and the climate resilience of the Brazilian Cerrado. The findings underscore the urgent need for territorial management strategies that balance the economic prominence of agribusiness with biodiversity preservation and regional water sustainability.