Data-Driven Assessment of Land Cover Transformation and Vegetation Stress on The Kinburn Peninsula from 2000 To 2025 Using Landsat, Sentinel-2 and Climate Data

Semi-arid sandy coastal ecosystems are highly sensitive to wildfire disturbance, moisture limitation, surface exposure and climate-driven thermal stress. The Kinburn Peninsula in southern Ukraine represents such a system, where earlier vegetation recovery has recently shifted toward degradation. This study evaluates the transition from vegetation stabilization to degradation during 2000–2025.

The analysis used annual June–August Landsat 5–9 composites for 2000–2025 and Sentinel-2 surface reflectance data for 2019–2025. After cloud, shadow and open-water masking, land-only statistics were calculated for NDVI, SAVI, NDMI, BSI, NBR, MNDWI and Landsat-derived land surface temperature. NASA POWER summer climate indicators were used to characterize heat–dryness conditions. Landsat was used as the consistent 30 m long-term record, Sentinel-2 as higher-resolution 10–20 m confirmation of recent patterns, and NASA POWER climate data as regional-scale background information. Temporal patterns were assessed using Mann–Kendall testing, Theil–Sen slope estimation, breakpoint analysis, before–after comparison and phase-based statistics.

The results indicate a non-linear, multi-phase trajectory. Breakpoint analysis and phase-based comparisons identified relative stabilization during 2013–2021, characterized by comparatively stable vegetation indicators, and degradation during 2022–2025, characterized by significantly lower vegetation and burn-sensitive indicators, increased surface exposure, reduced moisture signal and higher land surface temperature. Landsat-derived land surface temperature increased significantly over 2000–2025 (Mann–Kendall tau = 0.397, p = 0.0048; Theil–Sen slope = +0.118 °C yr⁻¹). Sentinel-2 independently confirmed the post-2022 degradation pattern at higher spatial resolution. Climate indicators showed that 2022–2025 was the warmest and driest phase. The observed degradation coincided with recurrent wildfires and intensified heat–dryness conditions documented by satellite and climate data. Conflict-related restrictions on land management and hydrological disturbance were not directly quantified and are therefore considered plausible contributing factors rather than confirmed causal drivers.

The study reveals a transition from vegetation stabilization to disturbance-driven degradation, accompanied by surface exposure, moisture decline and increasing thermal stress. The proposed Landsat–Sentinel-2–climate workflow supports the detection and interpretation of systemic shifts in semi-arid coastal landscapes under limited field access.