Evaluation of the Effects of Land Surface Temperature on Cereal Crop Production Areas in the Guinea Savannah Ecological Zone, Nigeria

This study evaluates the effects of land surface temperature (LST) on cereal crop production areas within Nigeria’s Guinea Savannah ecological zone across four temporal epochs—1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023—using Landsat 5, 7, and 8 thermal bands. Rapid population growth in northern Nigeria averages 3.6% annually, outpacing agricultural expansion at 3.5% and driving regional food insecurity that is further exacerbated by climate-induced temperature spikes. Remote sensing techniques using pixel-based image differencing were employed for change detection to trace elevated LST geographic footprints over 30 years using ERDAS IMAGINE software. Additionally, a geographic information system (GIS) in ArcGIS Geoprocessing was used to convert raster output datasets from the change detection analysis to vector formats to identify thermal hotspots using overlay analysis, in order to map recurring intersecting hotspot locations over the temporal periods of 1993-2003, 2003-2013, 2013-2023 and 1993-2023, which were identified as high-thermal areas. Data analysis revealed that the maximum mean LST rose from 39.39°C (1993–2003) to 39.59°C (2003–2013), then declined to 38.96°C (2013–2023), with a net period (1993–2023) average of 38.73°C. These recorded LST values frequently exceeded the optimal biological baseline ranges for major local cereal crops, including rice at 25-30°C, maize at 20-35°C, millet at 26-35 °C, and sorghum at 25-35°C, in the Guinea Savannah ecological zone of Nigeria. The spatial overlay intersections successfully isolated specific geographic clusters with high LST recurrence, classifying them as zones highly vulnerable to yield deficits. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) statistical model was applied for trend analysis, which predicted a future thermal forecast of 38.75°C. This study confirms that elevated LST directly impairs regional cereal crop outputs. The resulting thematic maps function as a vital decision-support tool for agricultural zoning, targeted policy interventions, and a specialized monitoring system designed to safeguard both smallholder and commercial farming operations in the region.