Assessing Wildfire Impacts on Population and Built-Up Areas Using MODIS Burned Area and Copernicus GHS Data: A Case Study from the Mediterranean Basin, Türkiye

Forest fires not only cause ecological damage but can also lead to socio-economic crises that are difficult to reverse in regions where forest areas and human settlements are intertwined. Following the mega wildfires that occurred in the Mediterranean basin in 2021 (Antalya/Manavgat, Muğla/Marmaris, etc.), it has become critical to assess these types of socio-economic impacts quickly and accurately in order to reduce disaster risk. This study examines the impact of recent forest fires in Antalya, Turkey, on human life and the built environment by analyzing the period between 2020 and 2025. . To assess the impacts on people and infrastructure, the MODIS-based burned areas were intersected with the Copernicus Global Human Settlement (GHS) datasets (specifically the GHS-POP population and GHS-BUILT-S built-up area data at 100-meter spatial resolution). The year 2020 was used as the pre-fire reference year to capture the impact immediately prior to the 2021 disaster. Additionally, GHS’s 2025 forecast data were incorporated into the analysis to conduct a change analysis revealing potential demographic and structural trends in the burned areas. The analysis showed that, based on pre-fire reference values, the burned areas directly affected a resident population of 3,270 in 2020. Furthermore, spatial overlay analysis showed that the fires directly affected or caused physical damage to approximately 396,869 square meters of built-up area (residential, agricultural, and commercial structures) across the region.
The analysis confirms that the 2021 Antalya wildfires had measurable impacts on both resident population and physical infrastructure. The integration of multi-temporal GHS data with MODIS-derived burn boundaries, enables rapid, socioeconomic screening without the need for field surveys or high-resolution commercial imagery. This approach can serve as a first-tier assessment tool for disaster management authorities prioritizing post-fire recovery interventions in densely vegetated coastal regions where settlements and forest areas are existing in the same space.