The rapid growth of bandwidth-intensive services (4K/8K video, cloud gaming, IoT) demands a fundamental upgrade of the access network segment, commonly known as the "last mile". Among the competing solutions, passive optical networks (PONs) are considered the most scalable and cost-effective. However, the evolution from asymmetric GPON (2.5/1.25 Gbit/s) to symmetric XGS-PON (10/10 Gbit/s) and further to 25G-PON (25/25 Gbit/s) raises a critical question: how does the symmetry of the physical layer affect the reach and power budget?
In this work, we develop a comprehensive analytical model for the optical power budget of PON systems. We calculate the maximum achievable link length as a function of the splitting ratio (1:2 to 1:64), considering all key loss components: fiber attenuation (0.35 dB/km), connector losses (0.5 dB), splicing losses (0.1 dB per splice), and a 3 dB engineering margin. The transmitter power is taken as +5 dBm, and the receiver sensitivity as –28 dBm, yielding an overall power budget of 33 dB. Our results reveal that both GPON and XGS-PON provide sufficient optical power for a standard 20 km reach at a 1:32 split ratio. However, the symmetric XGS-PON architecture demonstrates an 8× higher upstream capacity (10 Gbit/s vs. 1.25 Gbit/s) while maintaining the same physical reach as asymmetric GPON when using identical optical components. The emerging 25G‑PON standard is discussed qualitatively as an intermediate step toward multi‑gigabit services; its detailed power budget analysis is beyond the scope of this work.
We conclude that symmetric PON solutions, particularly XGS-PON, represent an optimal balance between physical layer performance and future upgrade paths. The preservation of reach and power budget while increasing capacity eightfold makes XGS-PON the preferred choice for operators seeking a sustainable long‑term evolution strategy. Our findings provide a quantitative framework for network planning and technology selection in urban and suburban access networks.