Structural Transformation and Economic Resilience in Madeira Island’s Fisheries Sector

This study examines the long-run structural transformation and economic resilience of Madeira Island’s fisheries sector from 1976 to 2024. Using official annual fisheries statistics, consumer-price-index-adjusted monetary values, species-level indicators, concentration and diversity measures, volatility metrics, trend tests, structural-break checks, and real-value decomposition, the analysis evaluates whether sectoral change mainly reflected physical contraction, value-based adjustment, or increasing species specialisation. The results show a clear reduction in physical activity. Total landings declined by 45.2% from 6,417 tonnes in 1976 to 3,517 tonnes in 2024. Nominal landed value increased by 2,490.3%, but real landed value fell by 6.99% after adjustment for inflation, indicating that nominal growth did not represent sustained real economic expansion. Real unit value increased by 69.7%, suggesting that higher value per kilogram partly compensated for lower landings in endpoint terms. However, the trend tests do not support a sustained long-run increase in real unit value. The sector also became more concentrated. Quantity- and value-based concentration increased, while Shannon diversity and the effective number of economically relevant species declined. Species-level evidence shows that black scabbardfish became the main value-generating and stabilising category, showing increases in both landed quantity and real landed value. In contrast, tuna and similar species such as mackerel, horse mackerel, and other species recorded large declines in quantity and real value, although higher real unit values partly offset these losses. Tuna and similar species remained economically important, but highly volatile. Overall, Madeira Island’s fisheries sector did not simply decline. It became smaller, more concentrated, and more dependent on fewer commercially important species. The findings indicate partial value-based adjustment, but not full economic resilience because real landed value declined and diversification weakened over time.