Economic feasibility and deployment scenarios for 10G/25G PON technologies in large-scale access network rollout

The migration from copper access to FTTH is a major technical and economic challenge for telecom operators. This study analyzes PON technologies—GPON (2.5/1.25 Gbit/s), XGS-PON (10/10 Gbit/s), and emerging 25G-PON—using average Russian equipment prices as of Q1 2026. It evaluates manufacturing readiness, CAPEX, OPEX, and deployment recommendations.

For a typical 100-apartment building with 1:32 splitting, GPON investment is $5,100: OLT ports $200, 100 ONTs $2,100, passive infrastructure $2,800. XGS-PON costs $8,400: OLT ports $800, ONTs $4,800, plus identical passive infrastructure, giving 1.65× higher upfront CAPEX. OPEX is modeled as a fixed annual share of CAPEX. With monthly revenue of $7 for GPON and $11 for XGS-PON, XGS-PON delivers $1,400 more first-year net profit despite higher CAPEX. Payback is 8 months for GPON and 9 months for XGS-PON; rankings remain stable under reasonable revenue variations.

25G-PON is qualitatively assessed as an intermediate upgrade between XGS-PON and 50G-PON. It reuses passive infrastructure and requires only OLT line-card and ONT replacement, so economics are close to XGS-PON with modest CAPEX increase and a clear migration path.

Five deployment scenarios are derived: urban high-density, suburban low-density, GPON upgrade, business campuses, and long-term planning (5–7 years). The key recommendation: operators should choose XGS-PON for new rollouts, while GPON remains viable in low-density areas. The results offer a quantitative framework for telecom infrastructure rollout decisions.