Strategic Techno-Economic and Infrastructure Assessment for Establishing and Localizing Solar Cell Manufacturing Facilities in Sub Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa receives some of the world's strongest sunlight (4.5–6.5 kWh/m²/day) yet produces almost none of the solar cells that convert it into power, importing them mainly from China, which controls over 80% of global supply. For Nigerian assemblers, imported cells add roughly $23 per panel (about 35% of production cost), leaving locally made panels unable to compete. This research assesses whether solar cell manufacturing can realistically be localised in Sub-Saharan Africa, using Nigeria as its reference case. Following a pragmatist, concurrent-triangulation design, it combines a structured literature review, primary supplier data, international case studies and bottom-up cost modelling in the style of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) into a purpose-built decision support system. The 2,520 scenarios were synthetically generated from the cost engine by sampling 60 scenarios for each of 42 technology-site combinations. Silicon Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC) technology emerged as the strongest entry pathway, scoring 91.4/100 and ranking first in 99.3% of 600 randomised weightings, while perovskite pathways failed on yield, certification and humidity. Under five-fold cross-validation, the cost model achieved R² = 0.981 and MAPE = 14.8%, predicting about $48.7 million ($0.487/W) for a 100 MW PERC line, a premium over the $0.116/W global benchmark driven by grid, water, skills and financing gaps. The study concludes that localised manufacturing in Nigeria is feasible under specific conditions, provided the facility has dedicated power and treated water, the quantified site premium is budgeted, and workforce training is implemented early. The study offers a transparent, transferable tool for decision-makers across the continent.