Techno-Economic Assessment of Solar Cell Manufacturing in Nigeria

Existing research on solar cell manufacturing provides comprehensive global cost benchmarks, technology assessments, and financing models; however, most studies are based on established manufacturing hubs with reliable energy systems, large-scale production, mature supply chains, and favorable financing conditions. Few studies address the specific challenges faced by emerging markets such as Nigeria, including reliance on imported materials, unreliable electricity supply, limited upstream industrial capacity, high financing costs, and the absence of large-scale manufacturing ecosystems. The objective of this study was to assess the economic feasibility and cost competitiveness of establishing solar cell production capacity in Nigeria, using a technical-economic evaluation framework that examined three photovoltaic technologies: “Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact” (TOPCon) silicon solar cells, single-junction perovskite cells, and perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells. These technologies were evaluated at a production scale of 50 MW/year, under Nigerian market conditions. A bottom-up cost model was developed, incorporating material costs, equipment depreciation, energy consumption, labor, maintenance, and capital investment requirements. Cost-reduction strategies, economies of scale, and financial aspects were also evaluated to determine the conditions necessary for competitive local production. The analysis indicates that TOPCon demonstrated the strongest economic performance under the assumptions evaluated, with a price $ 0.107/W, while perovskite and tandem technologies remain promising longer-term options that require further technological maturation and empirical validation. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis identifies material costs, electricity prices, and capacity utilization as the most influential cost drivers affecting manufacturing economics.