Hydrometeorological extremes in a warmer climate. A local scale assessment for the island of Crete

A future warmer atmosphere indicates that precipitation will increase as a consequence of the higher humidity concentrations. According to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship precipitation increase by a factor of 7% per degree of warming. However, recent studies have shown that increase in precipitation extremes can exceed this scaling rate. In this regard we focus on the flash flood prone area of Crete by analysing high resolution precipitation records form a dense network of meteorological stations to see if the relationship of precipitation and dew point temperature lies within the Clausius-Clapeyron theory. We then use simulation outputs of a “present day event” from a set of very high resolution (about 2 km grid spacing) convective permitting regional climate models (CPRCM) to see if the models are able to capture intense convection and thus accurately simulate extreme precipitation events over Crete. A second set of simulations for the present day event, but with a perturbation of +2^oC, was used to examine intensity changes and to see what similar events might look like in a future weather. We finally focus on a high impact flash flood event occurred on 17 October 2006 and we study changes in hydrological impacts. The developed information can advance local scale knowledge in the context of climate change adaptation and appropriate risk management.