Evaluation of Microphysics Schemes in WRF-ARW Model for Numerical Wind Forecast in José Martí Airport

A sensitivity study has developed with Lin, Morrison 2-moment, WSM5 (WRF Single-Moment 5-class) and WSM6 (WRF Single-Moment 6-class) microphysics schemes available in the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF) for the numerical forecast of the wind field at José Martí International Airport. The selection of these schemes was based on their use in numerical weather forecast systems operating in Cuba. As case studies, five thunderstorms associated with synoptic patterns that cause dangerous conditions at this aerodrome were selected. The simulations were initialized at 0000 UTC with the forecast outputs of the GFS (Global Forecast System) model. The schemes were evaluated from the representation of the wind field in the region where airport is located, the headlands and center of the runway. The microphysics exhibit largest errors from 0600 to 1200 UTC, with a mean absolute error for wind speed between 2 and 4 m/s, and variations from 50 to 120 degrees for direction. The errors observed are strongly dependent on the occurrence of convection, especially on the intensity and the factors that cause it. The microphysics schemes studied presented limitations in the representation of the thunderstorms radar characteristics as a consequence of the stage of storm development. The maximum wind speed overestimation on the runway was 5 m/s. The numerical forecast at the airport was more efficient for wind speed than for wind direction. On the other hand, during the dry season (November-April) the biggest errors are located in the first hours of the forecast with WSM5 and WSM6 schemes. In addition, both parametrizations showed the worst performance between 1800 and 2700 forecast hours for the rainy period (May-October). From the evaluations, Lin microphysic scheme is the one that best reproduces the behavior of the wind field on the aerodrome.