Future Thermal Assessment for the Phenological Development of Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in Cuba

Current changes in climate conditions due to global warming affect the phenological behavior of economically important cultivable plant species, with consequences for the food security of many countries, particularly in small vulnerable islands. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the thermal viability of Solanum tuberosum (L.) through the behavior of the Thermal Index of Biological Development (ITDB) of two cultivation areas in Cuba under different climate change scenarios. For the analysis, were elaborated bioclimatic scenarios by calculating the ITDB through a grounded and parameterized stochastic function on the basis of the thermal values established for the phenological development of the species. To do it was used mean temperature values from the period 1980 to 2010 (historical reference period) of the Meteorological Stations: 78320 “Güira de Melena” and 78,346 “Venezuela”, located at the western and central of Cuba respectively. Besides was used modeled data from RCP 2.6 scenarios; 4.5 and 8.5 from the PRECIS-CARIBE Regional Climate Model which used global outputs from the ECHAM5 MCG for the period 2010 to 2100. As result, the scenarios show that the annual average ITDB ranges from 0.7 to 0.8, which indicates that until 2010 there were temporary spaces with favorable thermal conditions for the species, but not for the period from 2010 to 2100 in RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In these scenarios, there is a progressive decrease in the indicator that warns of a marked loss of Viability of S. tuberosum, reduction of the time-space to cultivate this species (particularly the month of April is the most inappropriate for the ripening of the tuber). These results show that Cuba requires the establishment of an adaptation program with adjustments in the sowing and production calendar, the use of short-cycle varieties of less than 120 days, the management of genotypes adaptable to high temperatures, and the application of "Agriculture Climate Smart”, to reduce risks in food safety.