Projection of Geographical Variability and Temporal Trends on Drought Characteristics Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for Water Resource Management of Critical Zones in Sindh, Pakistan.

Abstract

The recent increase of droughts in Sindh, Pakistan has had a large impact on the economy and environment of the province. Continuous change in patterns of rainfall and hydrological cycles due to climate change can potentially accelerate the occurrence of extravagant droughts and affect the availability of water resources in the future. This alarming situation makes it necessary to evaluate and estimate the vulnerability for planning and management of water resources and identify the well-suited and effective mitigation actions to conduct a risk analysis for droughts (drought risk analysis) in the context of climate change. The objective of this research is to identify the change in temporal trends of drought characteristics in Sindh province due to climate change. Initially, at the first stage, the changes in appearance and occurrence of droughts were analyzed by utilizing the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for Climate research unit (CRU) data of Sindh province and were analyzed for the past 30 years (1981 - 2010), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change situations data of year (2011 - 2100). Second, the variation on the temporal trends of drought properties was carried out by utilizing run theory which was used for comparative analysis of drought total period, extent, severity, and significance to allow for quantitative evaluation under previous and approaching climate conditions. These results determine the severe influence of climate change on drought and will contribute to the planning and management of water resources and drought countermeasures (physical control, technical control, administrative and managerial control) to climate change.