Distribution of Viviparous American Fish Species in Eastern Europe on the Example of Gambusia Holbrooki Girarg, 1859 and Poecilia Reticulata Peters, 1859 in the Context of Global Climate Change ^†

Potential distribution of tropical fish species in Eastern Europe-Gambusia holbrooki Girarg, 1859 (introduced for biological control) and Poecilia reticulata Peters, 1859 (aquarium species, found in waste waters of big cities) tend to be of particular interest in terms of global climate change. After GIS modeling of our own data and findings listed in the GBIF databases (2278 points for G. holbrooki and 1410 points for P. reticulata) by using the Maxent package, 18 uncorrelated variables of 35 Bioclim climatic parameters from CliMond dataset, it was found out that by 2090 guppies will appear in the south of Ukraine (Danube river’s estuary, as well as in several places in the Caucasus and Turkey with habitat suitability >0.3–0.5). G. holbrooki will also slightly expand its range in Europe. Limiting factors for G. holbrooki distribution are are: bio1 (Annual mean temperature, optimum +12–+23 °C) and bio19 (Precipitation of coldest quarter (mm). Limiting factors for guppies are: bio1 (optimum +14–+28 °C), bio4 (Temperature seasonality), bio3 (Isothermality). Guppies, unlike G. holbrooki, prefer warmer waters (correlation 0.02). Such thermophilic fish species do not compete with the native ichthyofauna, but they can occupy niches in anthropogenicaly transformed habitats, playing an important role as agents of biological control.