Developing a subpopulation-based model for the olive fruit fly Bactrocera oleae (Diptera: Tephritidae): conceptual model outline

Bactrocera oleae Rossi (olive fruit fly) is a dipteran of the family Tephritidae, considered the key pest of olives in Mediterranean countries, where it causes losses of great economic impact. Meanwhile, the intensification of olive tree mono-cultures has led to an increase in the use of pesticides against this pest, and consequently to several environmental problems. This way, and to comply with the increasing need of a more sustainable and resilient agriculture, it is urgent to integrate alternatives or complementary practices to the use of plant protection products, such as natural pest control. For the efficient enhancement of this ecosystem service, it is necessary to understand the interactions between pests, predators, agricultural management and climate, which can be done through models.

In here we present the conceptual model of a spatially explicit subpopulation-based model being developed for B. oleae in olive groves. In this modelling technique, the simulated dynamic landscape is segmented into non-overlapping cells, where the subpopulations of B. oleae are represented as separate but interacting entities. Our model is based on the Animal Landscape Man Simulation System (ALMaSS), which comprises a highly detailed and realistic landscape representation, incorporating data on different aspects of farm management, crop development, and climate, and where simulated entities operate. The presented conceptual model contains information on the different developmental stages of B. oleae’s life cycle, as well as on how these organisms interact with their environment, essential for the development of the final model and its implementation in ALMaSS.

This is a multidisciplinary study involving different research fields such as agronomy, entomology, ecology, mathematics, geophysics, and software engineering.

This work was funded by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia through the project PTDC/ASP-PLA/30003/2017 - OLIVESIM - Managing ecosystem services in olive groves using advanced landscape agent-based Models; by Programa Operacional Regional do Centro, grant number Centro-01-0145-FEDER-000007; by project ReNATURE—Valorization of the Natural Endogenous Resources of the Centro Region—Centro 2020; and by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, under Grant Agreement No. 773554 (EcoStack).