The Bari Doab region in Pakistan, an important agricultural area, is increasingly threatened by climate change, leading to severe water scarcity. This study employs sophisticated hydrological modeling techniques, including the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to predict the impacts of changing precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, and extreme weather events on water availability. By incorporating statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCMs), the research provides localized manageable climate projections for enhancing the accuracy of forecasts for this specific region. The study assesses changes in water resources and evaluates risks of floods and droughts which offers a comprehensive view of future challenges. Socioeconomic vulnerability indices are developed to gauge the region’s resilience to water-related hazards, considering factors such as economic stability, infrastructure, and social support systems. Based on these analyses, the study proposes several adaptation strategies which includes the adoption of advanced water use efficiency techniques, the implementation of early warning systems for extreme weather events, and the diversification of livelihoods to reduce reliance on agriculture alone. These strategies aim to improve sustainable water management and ensure food security in Bari Doab by providing actionable, evidence-based insights for climate change adaptation planning, thus enhancing the region’s overall resilience to environmental stresses.