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Sensitivity Analysis of Strong Cyclone Track Deflection over Isolated Topography: Exploring the Impact of Vortex Impinging Direction and Strength
1  School of Education, Huanggang Normal University
Academic Editor: Stefano Federico


This study presents a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the deflection of the cyclone track over isolated topography, focusing on exploring the impact of the direction and strength. A dynamic model is used to investigate the track adjustment of strong cyclonic vortices on a β-plane in an isolated topographic feature. Considering the conservation of potential vorticity, we derived a meridional adjustment velocity (MAV), which provides a first-order adjustment for the vortex motion. Detailed sensitivity calculations examine the variations in track patterns under different flow conditions, including impinging direction, vortex strength, and maximum topographic height. The analysis reveals an S-shaped pattern in most tracks, characterized by a southward deflection on the windward side and a northward recovery on the lee side of the vortex motion. In particular, when the vortex passes over the high-rise feature in the middle of the terrain, it experiences a significant deflection in its path, which poses challenges to accurate prediction of the tropical cyclone path. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that larger direction angles of the vortex that reaches the terrain result in more pronounced path deflections. The observed track deflection is attributed to the terrain loop effect induced by the strong topographic β effect. Furthermore, from a path prediction sensitivity perspective, adjacent vortex paths on the windward side converge on the leeward side in the south of the terrain, improving track prediction accuracy. On the contrary, vortices crossing the mountain from the north tend to diverge on the leeward side, reducing the accuracy of path prediction. In conclusion, considering various flow conditions, this dynamic model offers valuable insights into the uncertainties associated with path prediction for strong cyclones over topography. It also highlights the potential to incorporate higher-order adjusting velocity components and advanced vortex models to improve the accuracy of path prediction.

Keywords: cyclone track deflection; sensitiviy analysis; isolated topography; vortex impinging direction; vortex strength