Tropical forests perform environmental functions at different scales, from the local to the global. As an action for the protection of forests, the dynamics of the disturbances that affect it should be analysed; for this reason, it is necessary to determine the degree of deforestation in the department of Tolima and the associated causes. The methodology used considers the integration of social perception with spatially explicit data models, which allowed the analysis of changes and deforestation at numerical, spatial, and temporal levels. As a first measure, an analysis of global changes, forest changes, and systematic and random transitions was carried out. Subsequently, deforestation was evaluated, based on a numerical estimate, followed by the determination of the causes of deforestation with the application of a spatial logistic regression model. The results indicate that the forest present in 2015 was reduced; however, in 2021, the forest acquired new areas, which entails a net increase. Finally, both social perception and the mathematical model agree that the causes of deforestation are more influenced by the expansion of agriculture and settlements. These results may be integrated into the planning and management process of the natural forest in the department through, for example, the forest management plan.