One of the main causes of the degradation of forest systems and the ecosystem services that they provide is climate change. It is anticipated that tropical forests will be especially susceptible to this. Understanding the impact of climate change on forest systems requires analysis over a considerable period of time and evaluation at specific intervals. In the southern western Ghats of India, a watershed with approximately 75% forest cover was the subject of a 50-year study (1970–2020), aimed at assessing the impacts of climate change using bio-climatic variables as indicators. A 30-year moving average window, encompassing the years 1970–2000, 1975–2005, 1980–2010, 1985–2015, and 1990–2020, was used to examine the influence of climate change. The study area was divided grid-wise (0.25 degrees), considering the resolution of the available input data for conducting the analysis. The changes in forest cover and forest carbon stock were analyzed as forest degradation indicators to verify the impacts of climate change on forest degradation.

The results highlight a considerable increase in the impact of climate change on forest systems. In conclusion, the impact of climate change can be considered a forest degradation criterion, and bioclimatic variables are effective indicators of it. This analysis will help prepare forest management strategies and formulate mitigation plans in the context of climate change.