This study was performed to investigate the effects of climate change on a semi-arid catchment. The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological modeling. Two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were utilized for assessment in the periods 2050-2069 and 2080-2099. Calibration and validation were performed using the SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program (SWAT-CUP). Future climate data were prepared using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Under the impacts of the RCP4.5 scenario, the temperature in the Shakardara district indicated a +3.4°C and +3.8°C rise during 2050-2069 and 2080-2099, respectively. However, considering RCP8.5, it will continue to rise by +4.4°C and +6.54°C in the same periods. Runoff will decrease by 71.47% and 67.88% considering the RCP4.5 scenario. It is going to change to 63.03% and 65.2% under the RCP8.5 scenario. The Shah wa Arus dam in the catchment will fail due to severe drought. Therefore, we argue that climate change will exacerbate water problems and cause drought in the Shakardara district and inhabitants in this district will be forced to migrate because the main source of income for people in the Shakardara is agriculture and the water shortage will cause economic problems. It is therefore recommended to take action about future climate-related migration by developing a viable plan for water management considering climate change in the Shakardara district.