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Python-Powered Optimization of Sustainable 1,3-Butadiene Production from Ethanol: Bridging Thermodynamics, Kinetics, and Machine Learning
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1  Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, 225, Marquês de São Vicente Street, Gávea, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 22451-900, Brazil
Academic Editor: Young-Cheol Chang

Abstract:

This study pioneers a novel Python-based computational framework to optimize the sustainable production of 1,3-butadiene (BD) from bioethanol. The core innovation lies in the synergistic integration of kinetic modeling, thermodynamics, and machine learning (ML) with an optimized K2O:ZrO2:ZnO/MgO-SiO2 catalyst. This catalyst was selected for delivering the highest combined BD and acetaldehyde selectivity (72 mol%) while maintaining reasonable BD yield and productivity (0.12 gBD·gcat-1·h-1), outperforming Na and Li analogues primarily due to better surface area retention, thereby enhancing BD selectivity and minimizing byproducts. This holistic approach elucidates how temperature (300-400 °C), weight hourly space velocity (WHSV: 0.3-2.5 h-1), and ethanol feed fraction (0.41-0.85) govern process efficiency. Key findings confirm the reaction's endothermic nature and a strong correlation between thermodynamic driving forces (Gibbs free energy ΔG = -25.3 to -10.5 kJ·mol-1) and productivity. Optimal conditions (350-375 °C, WHSV 0.93-1.24 h-1) maximized BD yield at 25.3%, significantly reducing byproducts compared to non-optimal settings where acetaldehyde selectivity reached 57.3%. Among ML models, Random Forest excelled (R2 = 0.91 for ethanol conversion prediction), attributed to its superior handling of complex, nonlinear variable interactions, with temperature and feedstock composition identified as dominant factors. The methodology provides a practical computational toolkit for catalyst and reactor design, explicitly addressing the critical trade-off between productivity (reaching 0.49 gBD·gcat-1·h-1 at high WHSV) and yield. By enabling data-driven optimization of feed control and catalyst efficiency, this work offers a powerful strategy for advancing renewable chemical manufacturing and decarbonizing the production of critical precursors such as BD for synthetic rubber and plastics.

Keywords: 1,3-butadiene; ethanol; productivity; sensitivity analysis; thermodynamics
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