The European Union aims for carbon neutrality by 2050. To achieve this goal, environmental regulations are being continuously introduced, with the latest Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) set to take effect in 2030. Notably, RED III specifies a minimum 5.5% share of biofuels and a 1% share of renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) in the transportation sector. Hydrogen is a crucial component in refineries, and while it is currently produced mainly through reforming processes, they are to be partially replaced with RFNBO to comply with the RED III targets.

This work analyzes various methods to achieve RED III targets, i.e., RFNBO production directly in the refinery or its import in the form of green ammonia to be decomposed in the refinery, biomethane sourced to meet biofuel targets, and low-carbon hydrogen produced via thermal pyrolysis of natural gas. Strategic pathways were compared using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), evaluating environmental, economic, technological, and implementation criteria to identify viable strategies to integrate renewable fuel solutions into refinery operations. Without predefined criteria preferences, steam biomethane reforming ranks highest in over 50% of consistent preference combinations, primarily due to its cost advantage. Considering environmental or technological preferences, electrolysis is favored due to its zero-emission profile and its ability to produce pure hydrogen at elevated pressures. Under a fixed priority order (economic > technological > implementation > environmental), biomethane reforming remains the top-ranked strategy. However, MCDA results are sensitive to external conditions. If changes in either renewable electricity prices or methane-based gas costs occur, electrolysis can outperform other options in the ranking. Ultimately, the corporate strategy must consider not only techno-economic aspects but also European regulations and market dynamics, which necessitates long-term planning to ensure company's competitiveness.