In Mexico, ecological restoration faces major challenges arising from the expansion of exotic species, land-use change, and the impacts of climate change. Buddleja cordata Kunth (tepozán) is a native species with functional traits that enable it to tolerate disturbed environments and colonize areas less accessible to other native species. However, its potential future distribution may be significantly altered under different climate change scenarios. This study evaluated the current and future distribution of B. cordata in Mexico under four global climate models—BCC-CSM2-MR, CMCC-ESM2, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR—projected for the SSP5-8.5 scenario, using Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) in Maxent. Areas of persistence, expansion, contraction, and risk of invasion by exotic species were identified. Occurrence records and bioclimatic variables were integrated with vegetation, land-use layers, and Priority Sites for Restoration (PSRs). Results show that the distribution of B. cordata will be reshaped by changing climatic conditions, with a general trend of persistence in higher-altitude areas. Overlap with exotic species such as Casuarina equisetifolia L., Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh., Ligustrum lucidum W.T. Aiton, and Populus alba L. indicates that some regions may be increasingly susceptible to invasion, potentially undermining restoration efforts. Our findings suggest that adaptive restoration strategies should prioritize persistence areas and PSRs less vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions, thereby enhancing restoration success. The ecological implications underscore the importance of incorporating the regeneration capacity and environmental tolerance of B. cordata into the design of effective management and restoration strategies under climate change scenarios.