The study seeks to investigate how childhood and adolescent precarity shape adult voting behavior in Nigeria using a life-course cohort methodology. Drawing on nationally representative datasets—including the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (2018), Afrobarometer Round 9 (2022), National Bureau of Statistics labor and poverty statistics (2000–2023), and Independent National Electoral Commission turnout data (1999–2023)—the study will construct a pseudo-longitudinal cohort model linking early-life instability to adult democratic participation.
A multidimensional Early-Life Precarity Index (ELPI) will be developed to capture childhood poverty exposure, educational disruption, conflict intensity during formative years, and cohort-level youth unemployment rates. Methodologically, this will entail standardizing and consolidating these indicators into a composite ELPI score for each cohort (born 1979–2003), correlating it with age-period-cohort and matching it to voting outcomes, and integrating geographical fixed effects to address regional disparities. Adult resilience will be measured through problem-solving capacity, social connectedness, and future-oriented optimism. Logistic regression and structural equation modeling will be employed to estimate direct effects, mediation pathways, and regional variations in voting participation during the 2019 and 2023 general elections.
It is expected that the findings will be extrapolated to explain other factors contributing to declining voter turnout in Nigeria, beyond electoral administration challenges or institutional distrust.
It is also expected to measure or provide an indication of the impact of cumulative developmental disadvantages embedded across life-course transitions.
It is expected to indicate the likelihood that individuals in high-precarity cohorts exercise political participation through voting and to measure their perceived political efficacy.
The study is expected to inform policy decisions and framework regarding a developmental-democratic policy approach that factors in youth stabilization, educational continuity, and employment generation.
Given the decline in recurrent voters, it is expected that the study will contribute to informing priorities for addressing structural precarity vis-à-vis political participation.
