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Dynamical downscaling of future climate change scenarios in urban heat island and its neighborhood in a Brazilian subtropical area

The impact of climate change on cities is an important, relevant and a difficult theme to study, since there are many uncertainties about the real consequences of climate change in urban areas. According to IPCC reports, a greater frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves in urban areas are expected. This is related to the dynamical evolution of the cities, since the changes of the natural surface modifies the roughness pattern, reduce the wind intensity, changes the available humidity in the soil and the radiative properties. All these changes characterize an effect in the local microclimate, known as Urban Heat Island (UHI). Given the importance of UHI in the impact of extreme temperatures, this work proposes to investigate the physical processes of the future projections on the urban heat island formation and intensity, as well as their effects over neighborhoods crop areas. A dynamical downscaling of A2 and B1 future scenarios for Londrina, a medium-size city of Southern Brazil, using Weather Research Forecasting model is used. A2 is described as a pessimistic scenario, while B1 is considered the most sustainable scenario. Simulations for 20 to 24 July for 2015 were done using CCSM4 scenarios and GFS as input data. This period is considered as a prediction for the scenarios. An evaluation of the simulations was done to investigate the current trends. The results show a tendency of following the worst proposed scenarios (A2), and a drier rural area for both projection, which has direct influence on the urban heat island intensity and formation, and in the agriculture of the region

Keywords: climate change scenarios, regional modeling, urban heat island