Dociostaurus brevicollis is associated with the dry grasslands of Eurasia. In Asia, it is distributed from the Ural Mts. to the eastern parts of Mongolia and from the southern edges of the forests up to the southern boundaries of the semi-deserts. The species is often extremely abundant and may be an important pest. The goal of this presentation is to discuss some possible shifts in D. brevicollis distribution relative to global warming and local ecosystem transformations.
Data on species distribution were collected in 1976-2024. Data from some publications and collections were used. Localities with the relevant geographic coordinates (229) were included in the database. The species distribution models were generated on the basis of two different approaches (maximum entropy and ellipsoid ecological niches). Actual and predicted bioclimatic variables were used for the contemporary period and the periods 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 (the CNRM-ESM2-1 global model and the 3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway).
In the steppes of West Siberia, the species' abundance is usually high, sometimes extreme. The comparative analysis of species distribution until 1960 and from 1961 onwards shows no evident shifts with the exception of the right (eastern) side of the Ob River, where the species began to spread in the 1970s. The analysis of the models showed that the areas with optimal conditions may remain almost the same until the middle of the 21st century, but the levels of suitability will slightly decrease and some new areas with applicable environments will appear in the southern parts of Central Siberia. The distribution patterns of D. brevicollis and their possible changes in the future look similar to those of some other abundant steppe grasshoppers.
This study was financially supported by a grant from the Russian Science Foundation, 22-66-00031 (https://rscf.ru/en/project/22-66-00031).
