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Foresight in Agriculture: How to Be More Resilient in a Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous World
1  ISM University of Management and Economics, UAB, Gedimino ave. 7, Vilnius, LT-01103, Lithuania
Academic Editor: Bin Gao

Abstract:

The 21st century presents unprecedented challenges for global agriculture. The sector is at the forefront of this turbulence, tasked with feeding a growing population while contending with resource limitations and significant environmental constraints. Foresight enables agricultural systems to be more resilient and sustainable by anticipating and preparing for potential challenges and opportunities. The capacity for forward-thinking is particularly vital for agriculture functioning within highly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments. This is achieved through the identification of emerging trends and drivers that can impact food safety, climate change, and other factors affecting agriculture. Resilience in agriculture is the capacity of systems to absorb shocks and stresses while maintaining essential functions. Agriculture refers to sudden and unpredictable fluctuations in market prices, weather events, and input costs. Strategic foresight enables a deeper understanding of potential agricultural futures and the associated challenges. Furthermore, this sector is influenced by a complex interplay of biological, economic, social, and political factors that collectively shape agricultural outcomes. Highlighting the significance of resilience, the agricultural sector should take proactive measures to anticipate and respond to forthcoming challenges. Future strategies that incorporate diversification of crops, livestock, and income streams are fundamental to building and sustaining resilience within industry. Climate-Smart Agriculture encompasses practices designed to sustainably improve productivity, strengthen resilience, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Digital agriculture, remote sensing, artificial intelligence, and big data analytics are transforming farm management. Precision agriculture technologies improve input use efficiency and reduce vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. Agricultural insurance, futures contracts, and other financial instruments help buffer farmers against price and yield volatility. Resilient agricultural systems are associated with the presence of appropriate policies, institutional backing, and investments in research and infrastructure. Although progress has been made, several significant challenges remain. Data gaps persist, as limited access to reliable data hampers effective foresight and risk management, particularly in low-income regions. Policy fragmentation is evident, with inconsistencies across sectors potentially undermining resilience initiatives. Resource inequity continues to be an issue, as small-scale farmers, women, and marginalized groups frequently lack sufficient access to finance, technology, and essential knowledge needed to enhance resilience. Moreover, the emergence of new pests, diseases, and market disruptions necessitates continuous efforts to adapt effectively.

Keywords: foresight, resilient, VUCA, agriculture, decision-making

 
 
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