Climate change is amplifying drought frequency and severity across the Mediterranean, threatening agricultural water supply and food security. Low-cost, locally adaptable strategies, such as shifting planting dates and adjusting irrigation regimes, are essential for mitigating climate risks. This study evaluates maize yield loss risk under various drought conditions in the provinces of Matera and Potenza in the Basilicata region in southern Italy and assesses two adaptation strategies: planting date shifts (early, mid, late) and irrigation levels (full irrigation, 75%, 50%, 25% deficit irrigation, and rainfed).
Copula-based bivariate statistical models were developed to capture the dependence between drought severity and yield loss. Yield losses were estimated from simulated yields for different planting dates combined with irrigation levels using a calibrated CSM-CERES-Maize model, initialized with weather (1991–2023), soil, and management data. Marginal distributions for yield loss and drought indices were fitted, and copula functions were used to model their joint distribution, allowing estimation of conditional probabilities of yield loss across drought categories (moderate to exceptional).
Results indicate that under rainfed conditions, both provinces face a very high likelihood of yield losses ranging from 1.5 to 3.5 MT ha⁻¹. While irrigation reduced losses, Matera still showed a considerable probability of reductions (0.5–1 MT ha⁻¹), even under full irrigation. Potenza exhibited comparatively lower probabilities, particularly when late planting was combined with deficit irrigation (75–50%), with losses often remaining below 0.5 MT ha⁻¹. This suggests that late planting effectively enhances resilience in Potenza, whereas Matera may require additional adaptation measures beyond irrigation schemes.
Coupling crop simulation with copula-based probabilistic modeling provides a robust decision-support tool to assess drought-induced yield risks. The findings emphasize the need for location-specific adaptation planning to strengthen agricultural resilience under escalating drought pressures.
