Estuarine ecosystems play an essential role as nurseries for several aquatic species. However, increasing anthropogenic influences compromise habitat quality, species recruitment and nursery value in these systems. From this perspective, the study examined estuarine-coastal connectivity of the Mugil curema species in four tropical estuaries with different levels of anthropogenic impact: Camaratuba, Mamanguape, and Paraíba and Gramame river estuaries, located in the northeastern Brazilian state of Paraíba. Based on the chemical analysis of the otolith cores, the elemental signatures of individuals from the same cohort, i.e. juveniles collected in 2022 (age 0+) and subadults (age 1+) collected in 2023, were retrospectively evaluated and compared, aiming to identify recruitment patterns and relative contribution of each estuary to coastal populations. One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) and Linear Discriminant Function Analysis (LDFA) revealed partial separation of multielement signatures spatially, with variations associated with local environmental conditions and the intensity of anthropogenic impacts. Elemental ratios such as Li:Ca and Ba:Ca stood out as important markers for spatial differentiation. The Paraíba River estuary stood out as the main nursery area for Mugil curema, presenting a high rate of self-recruitment through Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) and contributing to other estuarine and coastal areas. Despite being the most impacted estuary, especially due to the high concentration of lead (Pb:Ca), this system still plays an essential role in maintaining coastal stocks of the species, evidencing its ecological importance and the need for conservation policies. These results indicate that connectivity between estuaries and the coastal zone is shaped by local environmental and anthropogenic factors, and the nursery value of estuaries can vary considerably. The identification of key areas for recruitment and connectivity, such as the Paraíba estuary, provides important insights for fisheries management and conservation, especially in tropical regions under increasing anthropogenic pressure.