Introduction: Middle school represents a critical stage for shaping future academic trajectories, particularly regarding STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) participation. While cognitive abilities are known predictors of academic success, less is known about how they interact with affective-motivational factors and gender to influence school track choice over time. This longitudinal study investigated the specific contribution of gender, cognitive abilities (intelligence, working memory, and inhibitory control), and affective-motivational factors (math self-concept, interest, and anxiety) in predicting the choice between STEM and non-STEM high school tracks at the end of middle school.
Methods: Data were collected from a sample of 159 Italian students assessed longitudinally in the seventh and eighth grades. Participants completed standardized cognitive measures to assess general intelligence, working memory, and inhibitory control, alongside self-report questionnaires assessing their math anxiety, interest, and self-concept. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the incremental contribution of each predictor to the likelihood of choosing a STEM curriculum.
Results: Findings indicated that gender and positive attitudes toward math were the strongest predictors of school choice. Boys were significantly more likely than girls to pursue STEM tracks. Notably, higher levels of math self-concept and interest significantly predicted the likelihood of choosing a STEM school. Crucially, the direct influence of actual cognitive performance was minimal and overshadowed by affective-motivational factors and gender in the final decision-making process.
Conclusions: These results highlight that students’ perceptions of their competence and their interest in the subject may outweigh their actual cognitive performance when determining educational pathways. To promote equitable access to STEM and reduce the persistent gender gap, educational interventions should focus not only on cognitive skill enhancement but also on fostering positive self-concepts and enthusiasm for mathematics during early adolescence.
