The low-carbon transition in the EU is structured around a legally binding path to climate neutrality by 2050, with deep emission cuts and a full transformation of the energy and industrial system by 2030–2040. The member states of the European Union are deeply engaged in the energy transition, evidencing a consolidated commitment to advancing sustainability objectives and reducing carbon emissions. Public authorities across the Union have undertaken substantial efforts by designing and operationalizing comprehensive regulatory frameworks that stimulate and, where appropriate, mandate responsible behavior on the part of both firms and final consumers. These frameworks are oriented towards accelerating the diffusion of renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency across sectors, and fostering innovation in low‑carbon and clean technologies. At the same time, the regulatory architecture reinforces initiatives that promote corporate social responsibility and raise consumer awareness, seeking to ensure that economic growth trajectories are compatible with environmental protection and long-term climate objectives.

In this context, the present study aims to investigate the interdependencies between a series of socio-economic and environmental factors that influence the level of CO2 emissions in the member states of the European Union, paying special attention to the often pronounced differences between the EU15 and the EU27 countries. By using a combination of statistical methods and machine learning techniques, the analysis explores the link between carbon dioxide emissions and relevant indicators, such as foreign direct investment, energy consumption, the degree of urbanization and the level of literacy. The objective is to generate empirical evidence and analytical insights to support the formulation of concrete strategies at the public policy level. The results obtained aim to provide decision-makers with information on the most effective levers for reducing emissions in both the EU15 and the EU27 countries, thus contributing to the achievement of the wider objectives of the European Union in terms of environmental sustainability and climate neutrality.