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Urban geo-thermodynamics mechanism of surface warming for thermal risk assessment in the Haldia urban–industrial region: A mathematical integrated approach for sustainable urban heat resilience
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1  Department of Geography, Faculty of Earth Science, Indira Gandhi National Tribal University, Amarkantak, Madhya Pradesh, India
Academic Editor: Eusébio Conceição

Abstract:

Rapid urban–industrial development has intensified surface warming in global cities, including India, posing critical challenges for sustainable urban environments. While advanced AI and remote sensing methods have mapped urban heat patterns, a fundamental thermodynamic understanding of how cities generate, absorb, store, and dissipate heat with the urban land transformation remains underexplored. This study conceptualizes the urban geo-thermodynamics mechanism as a comprehensive framework for quantifying urban surface energy exchanges, heat-flux dynamics, and thermal responses in the Haldia urban–industrial region (103.84 km²) of eastern India. The analysis employs Landsat-derived impervious surface expansion, land surface temperature (LST), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), NASA POWER radiation fluxes, World Settlement Footprint 3D structural (2023) and material stock (2024) data, and census-based population records (1991-2021). The integrated mathematical formulations were developed after the remote sensing-GIS-based statistical analysis for the urban energy balance through the Urban Thermodynamic Index (UTI), Urban Heat Retention Efficiency (UHRE), and Urban Cooling Potential (UCP) indices, which were developed from energy balance equations linking net radiation (Q*), anthropogenic flux (QF), and latent/sensible heat terms (QE, QH). The results reveal a 36% increase in UTI and a 28% rise in UHRE between 1991 and 2021, indicating enhanced surface heat accumulation and anthropogenic energy input associated with built-up and population growth (22.87-53.37 km²) and (1452-2375 person/km2). In contrast, UCP declined by 22%, reflecting reduced evaporative cooling due to vegetation loss, and the regression-based calibration (R² = 0.89; RMSE = 0.74°C) validated the correspondence with observed LST. These findings demonstrate a quantifiable link between thermodynamic processes and the transformation of urban morphological landscapes. The proposed mathematical–thermodynamic structure provides a transferable, GIS-based statistical method for urban heat risk assessment, energy-efficient planning, and geothermal environmental management, supporting global initiatives toward climate-resilient and sustainable urban development.

Keywords: Urban geo-thermodynamics; surface warming; thermal risk assessment; Haldia urban-industrial region; sustainable urban heat resilience
Comments on this paper
Mukul Maravi 
how can you validate (Landsat-derived) LST data ?
Bikash Das
Thank you very much for your question. In the proposed methodology we used Landsat satellite data and computed LST using Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE) or the Mono-Window Algorithm and Split Window Algorithm in ArcGIS. And validate it by the field verified or collected temperature data using regression analysis and RMSE calculation. The another way we can validate it by using NASA Power Project DAV temperature at 2 meters datasets at the same way. And we find the results for validation like R sq. = 0.89; RMSE = 0.74°C in the study, which is highly accurate and strongly related in the actual field investigation.



 
 
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