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Analysis of Changes on Moisture Sources Contributions for Arctic Region in a FutureClimate Scenario Using GFDL/CM3 Model
* 1 , 2 , 2 , 3 , 2
1  UNESP- Univ Estadual Paulista, Campus São José dos Campos, São Jose dos Campos, Brazil
2  UVIGO – University of Vigo, Ourense, Spain.
3  USP – University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil


The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report suggests that the projected increase in the global temperature in future scenarios could cause different impacts in different regions of the world. For the Polar Regions the global models are being adapted to measure these changes, but the preliminary results indicate large heating for the Arctic region. The changes on Arctic region are not a problem just for a future climate: the Arctic amplification, the decrease on Arctic sea ice extent and on snow cover extent is a present concern for climatologists. Studies suggest a link between Arctic changes and mid-latitude weather, as the changes on Arctic Region where observed accompanied by changes in other regions of the world, especially in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude. Some mechanisms are proposed to explain this link, and one of then is related to changes in the atmospheric moisture transport from middle latitudes. Recent studies have shown that the Mediterranean Sea, North Atlantic Ocean and North Pacific Ocean appear as the main regions that contribute as moisture sources to the Arctic Region. The objective of this work is to use the output of GFDL/CM3 Model for 2046–2075 and 2070–2099 periods to identify the regions of the main change on moisture sources that contributes to the Arctic Region in a future scenario (RCP4.5) compared to a present climate (1980–2005). For both future periods analysed, the results suggest that the contribution for Arctic moisture by the regions located on North Atlantic Ocean, North Africa and Middle East enhanced. This may indicate an increase in moisture transport from mid-latitude to Arctic that could lead to several changes in Arctic climate: warming, decrease on sea ice extent and on snow cover.

Keywords: Moisture Transport; Arctic Region; Climate Change