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Modelling external risk to agricultural development projects using a Reconnaissance drought (RDI) and Standardised Precipitation indices (SPI)
1  Central University of Technology, Free State


Drought is defined as a recurrent feature of climate that involve deficiency of precipitation over an extended period resulting in water shortages that have adverse effects on economy, environment and humans and their health. The probability of drought impacts varies widely depending upon drought duration, frequency and severity, baseline population vulnerability, existing health and sanitation infrastructure, and available resources with which to mitigate impacts as they occur. This natural climate feature adversely leads to poor crop yields. The current study aims at charactering drought for proactive management and mitigation strategies to be applied. The study used standardised precipitation (SPI) and reconnaissance drought (RDI) indices to model the behaviour of drought in the study area. The key findings revealed the study area under frequent, severe to extreme drought events. The study recommends that water users and all other relevant stakeholders adopt mitigation strategies such as use of water sparingly, use of drought-resistant crop cultivars and others.

Keywords: Project risk, risk modelling, RDI, SPI