The Andean ecosystems host high biodiversity and are crucial for the provision of ecosystem services, such as water regulation, and their soils are considered as an important agricultural pantry for the country. The aims of this study were to identify the dynamics of land use change, the factors associated to these changes, and potential transformations of páramo and Andean forest, through the modeling of land use change scenarios. Our study area encompasses the mountain ecosystems of the Boyacá providence (Colombia) above 900 m a.s.l. Using satellite images, the change in land use was assessed in two time periods: 1998 to 2010 and 2010 to 2018. Seven transition sub-models were analyzed and associated to 36 explanatory variables. Three future scenarios of land use change were projected for the years 2030 and 2050: trend, agricultural expansion and conservation scenarios. We found a gradual reduction in páramos and Andean forests, together with an increase in secondary vegetation and recurrent change between crops-pastures and secondary vegetation. The transition sub-model with the highest precision value was Páramo to crops-pastures, with a precision value of 80.62%. The most relevant variables explaining land use change were: elevation, distance to roads and distance to protected areas. Most frequent socioeconomic variables influencing the transitions were: agricultural density, number of households and conflict overuse. Our results showed that the scenario with the greatest impact in páramos and Andean forest was the agricultural expansion scenario, where the Andean forest would have a loss of 29% and 41% for 2030 and 2050, and the Páramos 44% and 59% for the same years. Forest and páramos in the central eastern area showed critical losses and highly fragmented distributions in all tree scenarios; hence, we recommend focusing conservation efforts in these areas.