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Influence of Temperature and Precipitation on the Climate Suitability of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
1 , * 2, 3 , 4
1  College of Animal Science, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550000, China
2  Tarim University, Alar 843300, P.R. China
3  Library of Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, P.R. China
4  College of Wildlife and Protected Areas, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, P.R. China


The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has caused enormous losses worldwide since its emergence in 2019. We aimed to further understand how temperature and precipitation affect distribution of the virus, to facilitate taking preventive actions against the disease in a timely manner under varying climatic conditions. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model and R software to investigate temperature and precipitation factors that affect the fitness of SARS-CoV-2. Our results showed that low temperatures (approximately 0–17.5°C) and low precipitation (approximately 30 mm) greatly influence survival of the virus. However, the output value of the response curve was close to 1 with temperatures between 31°C and 37°C and monthly average precipitation 200 mm, which indicates that a high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission may also exist under these environmental conditions. SARS-CoV-2 can easily survive under conditions of low temperature and low precipitation; however, the virus also presents a high risk at 31–37°C and monthly precipitation of 200 mm. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis for predicting the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Keywords: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Temperature; Precipitation; MaxEnt model; Akaike information criterion; True skill statistic.